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When the sewing machinery industry in China was transformed and upgraded

Time:2012-06-07 10:53

   In 2011, when the domestic market first rose and the demand in the international market quickly released, the sewing machinery industry in China maintained a growth trend that was higher than before. Predicting the continued decline in the growth rate of the industry in 2012 is a general trend. Faced with the dual pressures of weak demand and rising costs, we will take product quality improvement projects as a starting point, grasp the laws of market economy development, actively change the mode of growth, and seek stability according to the country’s requirements. Advancing the guidelines and making efforts to accelerate the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading will be the top priorities for the whole year.

 

   Review the situation

 

   "Internal and external" delivery, continued downward pressure on macroeconomics

 

   From the perspective of the international situation, due to the fact that the deep impact of the financial crisis has not yet been completely eliminated, the European sovereign debt crisis has spread from marginal countries to core countries, and economic growth has stagnated and may decline. The United States has a heavy sovereign debt burden. At the end of December 2011, the balance of government bonds exceeded the GDP of the year and consumer demand was weak. The turmoil and chaos in West Asia and North Africa will continue and spread. Emerging and developing economies will face inflationary pressures and the economic growth will continue to fall. According to forecasts by international agencies, the global economic growth in 2012 will be reduced from 3.8% in 2011 to 3.4%. Among them, the United States and Japan both increased by 2%, and the euro area only increased by 0.2%. World trade will be reduced from 5.6% in 2011 to 3.6%, and there is a possibility of zero growth. As a result, the momentum of world economic recovery in 2012 has significantly weakened, and the economic downside risks have increased. It is expected that the pattern of low-speed growth will continue to be maintained. As the global economic and trade growth rate slows down, international trade protection and exchange rate disputes will intensify and the export situation will be severe.

 

   Judging from the domestic situation, under the “12th Five-Year Plan” implementation of the country, expanding domestic demand, upgrading the consumption structure, accelerating the development of urbanization and industrialization, and regional industrial transfer will provide long-term driving force for China’s economic growth. However, the problem of China's economic structure imbalance is still relatively prominent. The continuous appreciation of the renminbi, potential market risks in areas such as finance and real estate, rising pressures on rising domestic factor costs, decline in profitability of enterprises, severe export situation, and persistently low external demand. Even the decline will be inevitable. As the pressure of a mild increase in the CPI remains, the growth in domestic demand will also show a certain degree of decline.

 

   According to relevant agencies' forecasts, China's economy will maintain an increase of around 8.7% in 2012, and the CPI will rise by about 4%. In the face of the complex and ever-changing international and domestic economic situation, the central government clearly put forward a working principle of steady economic growth in 2012. It will continue to adopt proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies, and increase the real economy and small-scale micro-economics. Business support.

 

   From a comprehensive analysis, due to the weak external demand and the lack of domestic demand, China's economy will face greater downward pressure in 2012.

 

   "Upper and lower" squeeze, the industry chain is obviously lower

 

   In terms of steel, China's steel prices have fallen sharply since the beginning of the year's smooth operation to mid-July 2011. After just over a month, steel prices have fallen by more than 600 yuan per ton and are still fluctuating at low levels. In 2012, the global economic situation is still severe, and the economic growth momentum is insufficient. The growth rate of domestic infrastructure construction investment and industrial production will also slow down compared to 2011, and the growth in demand for steel will also enter a slowing trend. Therefore, industry experts generally believe that China’s steel consumption has entered the “high-consumption, low-growth” stage, and it is expected that the growth rate of China's crude steel production will fall back to about 5% in 2012, and steel prices will generally weaken, showing a trend of increasing first.

 

   In terms of non-ferrous metals, due to the continued deterioration of the European debt crisis in 2011, the overall price level of domestic non-ferrous metals showed a downward trend. As China will continue to adopt a policy of curbing inflation in 2012, the slowdown in economic growth and financial market turmoil will lead to a decline in the growth of non-ferrous metals such as copper and investment demand. It is expected that in 2012, the price trend of major non-ferrous metal products in the domestic market will be weaker than the international market, and prices will continue to fall on the basis of 2011.

 

   Due to the slowdown in world economic growth, the continuous appreciation of the renminbi, the large fluctuations in the prices of raw materials such as cotton, and the unfavorable factors such as rising labor costs and energy costs, the production and sales of the textile and apparel industry grew steadily in 2011, but the growth rate declined month by month, and some small and medium-sized enterprises operated difficult. According to a recent survey conducted by the relevant agencies on the operation of the garment industry in Guangdong, after the Lantern Festival in 2012, 38% of garment companies indicated that they were “very difficult to recruit”. 32% of companies reported that workers are difficult to recruit, and 14% The company reflects that the rework of the old staff is not ideal. In terms of production, the average operating rate of garment enterprises is about 70%, and the shortage of workers is more than 30%. In terms of orders, 20% of the companies indicated that their orders were sufficient, and 80% of the companies stated that the orders were still guaranteed but only for the first quarter. From the above data, it can be seen that due to lack of work, shortage of labor, and lack of orders, the apparel industry will continue to maintain low growth or gradually decline in 2012.

 

   In the international market, as China's textile and apparel industry has a complete industrial chain and advanced technology, its advantages in international competition still exist. It is expected that the growth rate of textile and apparel exports in 2012 will not be lower than the growth rate of international trade in the same period. With regard to the domestic market, with the continuous deepening of national reforms and macro-control efforts, the domestic economy will maintain steady growth, and domestic textile and apparel consumption will also continue to grow. The growth rate is expected to remain basically the same as in 2011. Taking into account the pressure of inflation, the people’s spending power has been curbed, and the sluggish external demand has driven exports to domestic sales. Coupled with the uncertain market outlook, in 2012, the garment industry will adjust its production capacity, control inventory, and concentrate more resources on market segments. The layout marketing network may become an important task for the development of the company.

 

   After the first suppression, the sewing machine industry structure still remains unchanged.

 

   In 2012, due to the proliferation of debt crisis in Europe and the United States, the turmoil in West Africa and North Africa, the slowdown in the economic growth of emerging economies, and the weakness of global consumption, the export situation of China's sewing machinery industry is facing greater uncertainty and downside risks. On the domestic front, due to the lack of overall start-up due to shifts in orders and recruitment difficulties in the apparel industry, the significant increase in labor costs and the continuous appreciation of the renminbi further weakened the profitability of the company. In 2012, the overall growth of the apparel industry was weak and it was difficult to form effective demand, resulting in a difficult improvement in the domestic market. In addition, pressures such as rising costs, high inventory levels, and shrinking markets, which are commonly faced by the domestic sewing machinery industry, are constantly deepening. A new round of market competition and structural adjustment will be inevitable. Increasing the added value of products and accelerating the transformation and upgrading are still the main themes of development. .

 

   In terms of spare parts production, in 2012, it is expected that the continuous increase in labor costs will also lower the profitability of the company to a certain extent. With the gradual slowdown of production and the gradual implementation of technological transformation of enterprises, the level of equipment automation and production efficiency will be further improved, and the scope of application of automated processing assembly line operations will be expanded, and employment difficulties will be alleviated. Due to the weak overall market demand, the production and sales volume of parts and components will decline significantly compared with 2011, and the order completion rate is expected to be close to 100%. The balance of parts supply and demand or supply oversupply situation will repeat itself.

 

   In terms of machine production, the situation of production and sales in 2012 was severe due to the gradual fall in external demand and the sluggish domestic market. Due to the large amount of early-stage inventory, in order to maintain the normal production and personnel stability of the company, the destocking in the first quarter of 2012 was not significant. With the increase of financial pressure, it is expected that market competition will intensify in the second quarter and the prices of conventional products will decline significantly.

 

   In the second half of the year, with the gradual improvement of the economic situation at home and abroad, the destocking of the whole machine is basically completed, and production demand is expected to be gradually released. Production and sales will grow by a large margin compared to the first half of the year, and the proportion of electromechanical integration products will further increase. It is expected that the entire line of production in 2012 will show a trend of growth before and after.

 

   In view of the above, the development of the industry economy in 2012 is not optimistic. It is expected that the industry's annual production and sales growth will fall within 5%, and the annual gross output growth rate will remain at around 10%-12%. With the increase in the proportion of mechatronic products and the improvement of product quality, the trend of declining value of the industry will become increasingly apparent. It is expected that the output of electronically controlled sewing machines will still increase by more than 30%.

 

   Coping with the right way

 

   In 2012, the economic growth rate of the industry continued to decline, and it was an urgent task to push forward product quality improvement projects and accelerate industrial transformation and upgrading. In the face of both weak demand and rising costs, the industry’s development pressure has increased significantly.

 

   Enterprises should correctly understand and grasp the laws of market economy development, strengthen confidence in development, actively change the mode of growth, strengthen capital management and effective deployment, raise awareness of risk prevention, and maintain stable and healthy development of the company in accordance with the guidelines for steady progress.

 

   For this reason, it is necessary to take measures to respond.

 

   Accelerate the adjustment of product structure and enhance the level of development Each sewing machinery manufacturing company should fully understand the important role of scientific and technological innovation in the adjustment of product structure, strengthen the investigation of market demand, further increase the allocation of scientific research and resources, and accelerate the upgrading of old products. Replacement and new product development progress. Through effective product structure adjustment, the company will increase its profitability and development space and better meet the needs of the sewing machine market.

 

   Accelerate product quality improvement and enhance market competitiveness

 

   The industry should further improve the industry standard system and quality management system, speed up the formulation and implementation of standards for certain industry foundations, methods, and general technical conditions, actively introduce relevant advanced technologies and external resources, and accelerate the construction of industry product comprehensive inspection platforms. Improve the overall assurance ability of the industry's product quality; Accelerate the implementation of industry quality improvement and catch-up projects, actively carry out technical and technological innovations, earnestly implement various rectification and improvement measures, and effectively improve product quality.

 

   Strengthen management innovation and improve cost control capabilities

 

   Actively discuss new business development models, speed up the transformation of business development methods, strengthen training and internal and external communication among corporate management personnel, especially senior management personnel, continue to introduce new management ideas and concepts, and actively develop green and sustainable development guidance. Various types of management and innovation activities, strengthen enterprise cost control, continuously reduce the resource consumption rate of output value, and improve the overall competitiveness of the industry.

 

   Consolidate the results of the market order and deepen cooperation in the industrial chain

 

   Zhongdai Xie actively plays a role in using the industry's existing platforms and channels to increase communication and communication among industries, guide industry self-discipline, and maintain development order. At the same time, we will further strengthen the cooperation among the enterprises, parts and components, distributors and other supporting enterprises of the whole machine, strengthen the competitiveness of the entire industry chain through effective assistance, and establish a true strategic partnership and an unbreakable interest community. Realize the common development of the industry.

 

   Prepare for coping with preplans and prevent adjustment risks

 

   In view of the large adjustment pressures and downside risks in the industry economy in 2012, enterprises in the industry should take precautions, brainstorm ideas, and deal with various types of preparedness plans, such as responding to preplans for price fluctuations of raw materials, responding to market demands, and preempting risk control plans for corporate capital chains. . At the same time, enterprises should actively explore new business development models, speed up the formation of various industrial chain alliances, actively carry out various types of capital operations and resource reorganization, strengthen the industry's overall anti-risk capability, and ensure the sustained and healthy development of the industry.